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Post by Tamrin on Aug 14, 2013 9:47:30 GMT 10
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Post by Tamrin on Aug 14, 2013 10:35:35 GMT 10
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Post by Tamrin on Aug 15, 2013 8:43:55 GMT 10
From Chapter Five, "The Dangers of Speculation":The belief that one can find out something about real things by speculation
alone is one of the most long-lived delusions in human thought. It is the
spirit of anti-science which is always trying to lead men away from the
study of reality to the spinning of fanciful theories out of their own minds
It is the spirit which every one of us (whether he is engaged in scientific
investigation or in deciding how to use his vote in an election) must cast out
of his own mind. Mastery of the art of thought is only the beginning of the task
of understanding reality. Without the correct facts it can only lead us into error
We can distinguish as a special kind of crooked thinking the attempt to get knowledge
of fact by speculative methods. This attempt is being made in any argument which
tries to deduce what 'is' from what the speaker feels 'ought to be' or 'must be', or when-
ever a person in discussion tries to draw conclusions about facts from the use of words
Speculation has a legitimate place even in thought about external fact — that of suggesting new
possibilities. We can properly use the speculative method to suggest what might be, but never
to conclude what is. We can only draw conclusions as to facts by consideration of other facts
Yet the illegitimate use of speculation is common. Our remedy is to examine on
what grounds a conclusion as to fact is put forward. If these grounds are other facts,
then the conclusion may or may not be a sound one. If the grounds are the speaker's
conviction of what ought to be or what must be or the manner in which words are
commonly used, then we must defeat our opponent's argument by showing that his
conclusion is based on the kind of data from which no valid conclusion can be drawn
When we say that speculative thinking is not a useful way of trying to find out
what is true, we do not mean that it is of no use. The value that it has has already
been suggested: as a means of realising what might be the case, leaving to other
methods the discovery of whether what might be really is. What shuts us off from
realising the truth is often that we have not thought of all the possibilities, so the
habit of speculating as to what might be is a valuable help to discovering the truth
It is difficult to say whether the original speculation or its later confirmation by experi-
ment or observation is the more important to the advancement of knowledge. Both are
necessary; perhaps the ability to have the original bright idea is a rarer gift than the ability
to confirm it. Much that we do not understand now may be obscure to us because no genius
of the order of Newton or Darwin has made the necessary flight of speculative fancyRobert H. ThoulessBritish psychologist and author ( Straight and Crooked Thinking) (Born 15 July 1894 / Died 25 September 1984)  For many years investigations on telepathy and other phenomena of extrasensory percept-
ion have taken place, but no genius has appeared who can make the necessary speculation
which will make these things cease to be mysterious and unexpected and fall into order.
When he does appear he will do more for our understanding of such subjects than can be
contributed by such experimental research not guided by a brilliant speculation. But also spec-
ulations on the topic are of no use unless they are confirmed by experiment and observation
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